FROM TRANSITION TO RUPTURE: THE FATE OF THE RULES-BASED WORLD ORDER AND PAKISTAN’S STRATEGIC RECKONING

Abstract

The international system is no longer undergoing a gradual transition but rather a systemic rupture, characterised by shifts in the distribution of power, erosion of institutional legitimacy, and fragmentation of normative consensus. Drawing on realist, liberal, and constructivist perspectives, the article examines the structural and normative drivers undermining the post-1945 international order, including great power rivalry, institutional paralysis, selective rule compliance, and technological and geo-economic coercion. Using qualitative analysis of recent geopolitical developments and regional conflicts, the study demonstrates that the emerging global environment is characterised by fragmentation, transactionalism, and power-centric behaviour rather than shared rules. It further assesses the strategic implications of this rupture for middle and developing powers, with particular emphasis on Pakistan’s diplomatic space, security calculus, and strategic choices in an increasingly polarised international system.