FROM TREATY TO WEAPON: HYBRID COERCION AND THE SUSPENSION OF THE INDUS WATERS TREATY IN 2025

Abstract

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India in April 2025 marked a consequential shift in South Asian water diplomacy. It transformed a longstanding cooperative framework into a tool of hybrid coercion. This research endeavours to reframe the IWT as a strategic arena where legal thresholds, climate vulnerabilities, and hydro-technical design intersect to create leverage over downstream populations. It will analyse official statements, treaty texts, litigation records, and hydrological data to examine how India's unilateral suspension manipulated treaty mechanics, signalled political intent, and withheld critical flow data without formally abrogating the agreement. Along these lines, the research will examine the faultlines in the treaty's legal and technical architecture, the amplifying role of climate-induced water stress, and the suspension's place within broader hybrid conflict dynamics. Furthermore, the subsequent ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration highlights the contested nature of the treaty along with the challenges of enforcing legal norms in the face of strategic manipulation. This research concludes that even though the IWT remains formally intact, it now requires urgent legal, technical, and cooperative innovation to prevent escalation, as it operates under conditions of strategic fragility.

Bibliography Entry

Niazi, Zubeda Anjum and Houria Sheikh. 2025. "From Treaty to Weapon: Hybrid Coercion and the Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in 2025." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 109-130.