REFRAMING CONTEMPORARY SECURITY: THE CONFLICT SEVERITY MAPPING FRAMEWORK (CSMF) AND THE DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL CONFLICT

Abstract

Contemporary conflicts are hybrid and transnational, shaped by overlapping drivers of insecurity, unlike the conflict landscape of previous centuries, which was characterised by singular causes and isolated theatres. The existing approaches tend to categorise conflicts either as purely qualitative themes or through a quantitative lens, leaving a gap in the comprehensive understanding of the severity and nuances of contemporary conflict. This paper introduces the Conflict Severity Mapping Framework (CSMF), which combines a thematic lens (identity, fragile governance, resource competition, geopolitical rivalry, and hybrid risks) with a spatial lens (conflict clusters, strategic corridors, transnational flows, and emerging frontiers), derived from contemporary conflict arenas. By integrating these dimensions, the CSMF categorises conflicts into low, medium, and high severity levels, each corresponding to tailored responses ranging from preventive diplomacy to robust post-conflict recovery. Through illustrative cases and an inductive, case-based comparative method across six regions, the paper demonstrates how the framework moves beyond descriptive mapping to offer a prescriptive model that links theory to practice. In doing so, it provides policymakers with a systematic tool for navigating the complexity of contemporary security.

Bibliography Entry

Malik, Hiba. 2025. "Reframing Contemporary Security: The Conflict Severity Mapping Framework (CSMF) and the Dynamics of Global Conflict." Margalla Papers 29 (2): 68-92.