Margalla Papers

RAMIFICATIONS OF INDIA’S NAVAL BUILD-UP IN NUCLEAR REALMS

Gulshan Bibi ; Brice Tseen Fu Lee — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The naval build-up of India in contemporary times reflects its major power ambitions. Owing to its development of advanced naval capabilities coupled with its long-standing desire to develop a blue-water navy is a major driver of this build up. These blue water ambitions stir instability in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) affecting Pakistan’s threat perceptions. The most important development in the region's stability and security architecture is the addition of second-strike capacity to the sea, which carries serious consequences. Hence, it is pertinent to address the question of strategic stability regarding the development of India’s sea based nuclear capabilities. This paper explores Indian naval nuclear developments and their repercussions for the security environment of South Asia. It establishes that nuclearization of Indian Ocean is leading to aggressive arms build-up in South Asia and subsequent risk of nuclear accidents, sabotage and command and control vulnerabilities.

Bibliography Entry

Bibi, Gulshan and Brice Tseen Fu Lee. 2023. "Ramifications of India’s Naval Buildup in Nuclear Realms." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 1-13.

STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATIONS: INDIA'S PURSUIT OF COUNTERFORCE TARGETING AND REGIONAL STABILITY

mubeen.0727@gmail.com; Syed Saif ul Haq — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

In the intricate web of South Asia's security dynamics, India and Pakistan's relationship holds the key to equilibrium. Geographical proximity demands swift responses, prompting India's strategic shift towards Counterforce targeting. Official declarations and military posturing attest to India's resolute commitment to recalibrate its deterrence doctrine. This study critically examines the origins of India's Counterforce targeting strategy, drawing from existing literature and employing theoretical frameworks, including posture optimization, escalation ladder, superiority-brinkmanship, mathematical game theory, rational choice theory, and nuclear deterrence. These models collectively contribute to understanding the implications of India's pursuit of nuclear superiority for coercive diplomacy with Pakistan. Beyond enriching the understanding of South Asia's security, this research unravels the interplay between evolving nuclear strategies, the fluid dynamics of deterrence, and nuanced geopolitical ambitions. By deciphering India's counterforce targeting approach, this study fosters a nuanced discourse on South Asian strategic stability, offering insight into the pivotal role of nuclear deterrence in shaping the region.

Bibliography Entry

Ashraf, Mubeen and Syed Saif ul Haq. 2023. "Strategic Transformations: India's Pursuit of Counterforce Targeting and Regional Stability." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 14-26.

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LETHAL AUTONOMOUS WEAPON SYSTEMS ON STRATEGIC STABILITY AND NUCLEAR DETERRENCE IN SOUTH ASIA

Maryyum Masood ; Muhammad Ali Baig — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Several trends show that the efforts to alter South Asian strategic landscape have increased, which primarily includes unprecedented proliferation of technology to India. This has exacerbated Pakistan’s security dilemma and is a matter of significant concern for South Asian security environment. Militaries worldwide are preparing for a new warfare trend in emerging technologies that include artificial intelligence and machine learning-based autonomous weapon systems, robotics, hypersonic weapons, and quantum technologies. These technologies are expected to change the character of war besides affecting geopolitical competitions and rivalries. It is pertinent to analyse the impact of these new technologies on regional rivalries to identify and implement effective solutions, thus mitigating potential risks and preventing the occurrence of a catastrophe. As several states are developing AI-based Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, capable of targeting without human supervision, possible exploitation of these technologies by nuclear-armed states may increase the risk of war leading to more aggressive nuclear postures. Such a risk would be higher in South Asia as the ballistic missile flight time would be less than ten minutes, and conventional military interactions of rival states could occur near a long border. The integration of autonomy into conventional weapons and nuclear systems has the potential to undermine strategic stability and will be a quick recipe for accidents and miscalculations. This study explores the region’s threat perceptions and analyses the potential use of LAWS and how it can impact nuclear deterrence and strategic stability of South Asia. This study hypothesizes that LAWS will lower the nuclear threshold in the region and undermine deterrence stability.

Bibliography Entry

Masood, Maryyum and Muhammad Ali Baig. 2023. "Potential Impact of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 27-43.

SOUTH CHINA SEA: THE CHINESE APPROACH

Sajjad Hussain Awan, SI (M) — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The international community has shown considerable interest in China's assertiveness in the South China Sea in recent times. The objective of this study is to examine the strengths and weaknesses that form the foundation of Chinese strategies, and decipher the underlying motives and strategies employed by China in its pursuits. The paper evaluates China's current position in the South China Sea and its effects on regional stability and global geopolitics. The findings reveal that China follows a holistic approach with significant infrastructure, diplomatic, and regional geopolitical gains. These efforts expose risks such as regional alliance tensions, international legal framework complexity and though rare but potential armed engagements.

Bibliography Entry

Hussain Awan SI (M), Sajjad. 2023. "South China Sea: The Chinese Approach." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 44-59.

UNVEILING DUALITIES: US RHETORIC AND REALITY IN GLOBAL NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION UNDER TRUMP AND BIDEN ADMINISTRATIONS

Asma Rashid ; Aiman Saif Ullah — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The image the United States has always projected of itself in the international community is that of a state that is nuclear responsible and bears the responsibility to keep nuclear proliferation in check. To this effect, it uses sanctions, international pressure, and harsh language with states it deems to be in violation of the obligations of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. On the other hand, however, there is doubt about the United States' own dedication to the cause of nuclear non-proliferation. This paper is an attempt to examine the role the US has played vis-à-vis nuclear proliferation. It deals with the question: what role US has played in promoting nuclear non-proliferation and what its probable effects are on the international nuclear non-proliferation landscape. It argues that the US has not only engaged in excessive nuclear proliferation since 1945 but has also damaged the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, thereby reduced restraints, and set dangerous precedence for other states. The paper recommends that US may lead the world towards nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament by example rather than unfair coercion.

Bibliography Entry

Rashid, Asma and Aiman Saif Ullah. 2023. "Unveiling Dualities: US Rhetoric and Realty in Global Nuclear Non-Proliferation under Trump and Biden Administrations." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 60-70.

INTEGRATED DETERRENCE: RELEVANCE & IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH ASIA

Adil Sultan; Faraz Haider , Shayan Hassan Jamy — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The US National Security Strategy of 2022 introduced a relatively new concept of Integrated Deterrence (ID) that will likely impact security discourse amongst global rivals such as the US, China, and Russia while affecting the strategic thinking of relatively smaller powers like India, Pakistan, and others. With an expanded scope and objectives, ID aims to build and integrate the entire spectrum of capabilities of the US, its allies, and partners against the perceived threat from China and possibly Russia. Resultantly, the paper focuses on implications of ID for security and strategic stability in South Asia. India, being a major strategic partner with the will to play a significant role in the US-led China containment strategy, is likely to be a major beneficiary of the new US posture of ID. With enhanced and integrated military capabilities, India is likely to adopt a more hostile posture towards its neighbours, especially Pakistan, thus forcing the latter to develop options in the form of 'Integrated Response', to help maintain strategic stability in the region without indulging in an arms race, and by maintaining neutrality in the evolving US-China great power competition.

Bibliography Entry

Sultan, Adil, Faraz Haider and Shayan Hassan Jamy. 2023. "Integrated Deterrence: Relevance & Implications for South Asia." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 71-84.

DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN SOUTH ASIA: LESSONS FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION

Muhammad Tariq Niaz; Muhammad Riaz Shad — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Regional integration is aimed at promoting socioeconomic growth and development in a region through economic cooperation among the member states. The European Union (EU) was established to promote economic and political cooperation among member countries. EU’s unprecedented success in regional integration offers lessons for other regions. Unlike the EU, SAARC has not been successful in achieving significant economic integration among member states. Despite its potential, SAARC has been plagued by political and economic differences among member states, especially between Pakistan and India. South Asian countries are unable to boost regional integration not only because of their political differences but also due to other sub-regional and trans-regional initiatives that run anti to the spirit of regional integration under the umbrella of SAARC. India’s role towards regional integration in South Asia is considered significant being the leading nation in the region. This paper first identifies the economic and political factors that hinder regional integration in South Asia. Then, it focuses on the dynamics of successful regional integration in Europe intending to underline the lessons to be learned by the South Asian countries to boost their regional cooperation.

Bibliography Entry

Niaz, Muhammad Tariq and Muhammad Riaz Shad. 2023. "Dynamics of Regional Integration in South Asia: Lessons from the European Union." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 85-101.

UNRAVELING PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN STRATEGIC RELATIONS IN THE POST-US WITHDRAWAL ERA

Sonia Bashir — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The future and prosperity of Pakistan largely relies upon the nature of its relations with neighbouring Afghanistan. The strategic quandaries between Pakistan and Afghanistan like border issues and persistent cross-border terrorism directly affect Pakistan's domestic situation and are producing reverberating influence throughout South Asia. This paper sought to examine the strategic limitations influencing their relations significantly in the wake of American withdrawal from Afghan soil. Furthermore, elucidating the profound impacts stemming from the circumstances after the American exit, it explores the political dimensions and ramifications of their relations. To that end, this research builds multi-dimensional causal relationships and employs qualitative approaches. The study’s findings depict that these strategic constraints are deep-rooted and multifaceted with implications for regional stabilization, manifesting through traditional security conundrums, disruption of trade routes, and obstacles to economic integration. The implications of this study accentuate the pressing need for coordinated measures to promote peace and stability in the region. It concludes by presenting some policy recommendations intended to lessen the existing challenges as well as encouraging a conducive environment to ameliorate relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Bibliography Entry

Bashir, Sonia. 2023. "Unravelling Pakistan-Afghanistan Strategic Relations in the Post-US Withdrawal Era." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 102-114.

ROLE OF MARITIME STRATEGY IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: A CASE STUDY OF BLACK SEA

Anees Fatima Sherazi — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Russia is using the Black Sea as a diplomatic tool in its foreign policy to achieve its maritime and foreign policy objectives, which are also linked with the country's strategic culture. This research investigates the significance of the Black Sea in Russia's Maritime Strategy for achieving its foreign policy objectives by using the balance of interest theory. This research employs two conceptual schemas. Firstly, with the help of maritime diplomacy, it analyses a tool to achieve foreign policy objectives in the waters. Secondly, the research uses the concept of strategic culture, which helps explore the diplomatic importance of the Black Sea in Russian foreign policy through the perspective of history and attitudes of decision-makers. This research highlights the case of the Black Sea for Russian maritime strategy, which also has a great economic significance for the region and world. It also highlights the importance of the Black Sea in the Russian maritime doctrine (2022) and links between maritime strategic culture and foreign policy objectives. It concludes that Russia is successfully pursuing its cooperative, coercive, and persuasive maritime diplomacy in the Black Sea region by providing humanitarian assistance, blocking Ukrainian access, and operating a stronghold at Sevastopol port as its naval base. In conclusion, this paper argues that strategic culture plays a vital role in employing the three diplomatic dimensions for achieving maritime objectives in the Black Sea.

Bibliography Entry

Fatima Sherazi, Anees. 2023. "Role of Maritime Strategy in Russian Foreign Policy: A Case Study of Black Sea." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 115-124.

BOOK REVIEW: KOREA REBORN: A MODEL FOR DEVELOPMENT

Ajab Khan — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Korea has had a turbulent and challenging history since 1945. The brutal dismemberment of the country quickly diminished the joy of being freed from Japan’s colonial rule. However, these difficulties did not go in vain. Despite a cloudy and hopeless future, determination and hope emerged from suffering. This book results from random observations and notes taken by the author, Park Chang Hee, an Army General and politician who led South Kora from 1961 to 1979. It traces the journey of the Korean nation from trials and tribulations to regeneration and modernization through five chapters, included as introductory section titled “On the Threshold of a New History” and the conclusion titled “Korea’s Path to Regeneration.”

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Ajab. 2023. "Korea Reborn: A Model for Development." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 125-128.

BOOK REVIEW: CHIP WAR: THE FIGHT FOR THE WORLD'S MOST CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY

Haadia Riaz — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Chris Miller is the author of the book titled "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology”. Currently, he is an Associate Professor of International History at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. His area of interest includes geopolitics, international affairs, technology, economics, and Russia.

Bibliography Entry

Riaz, Haadia. 2023. "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 129-131.

BOOK REVIEW: THE SECURITY IMPERATIVE: PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND DIPLOMACY

Shah Meer — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The book “The Security Imperative: Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence and Diplomacy” is a landmark book by Pakistan’s renowned ambassador Zamir Akram who is currently an advisor to the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) Pakistan. The motive of writing the book, as the author postulates, was to fill the void of literature in the domain of nuclear diplomacy of Pakistan especially left by most of the Pakistani authors, and to exhibit the actual face of Pakistan’s Nuclear Program to the world. The author argues that the book is based on 38 years of experience of the author in the foreign service of Pakistan and deeply relies on declassified official documents, interviews with key players and on secondary and empirical data.

Bibliography Entry

Meer, Shah. 2023. "The Security Imperative: Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence and Diplomacy." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 132-133.