Margalla Papers

NAVIGATING THE PATH TOWARDS GEOECONOMICS: AN ANALYSIS OF OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN

2023-08-19T20:41:29+05:00

Preferring geoeconomics over geopolitics is trending globally, and Pakistan is also an aspirant to join the suit. In this regard, various factors influence Pakistan's shift towards geoeconomics, including economic interests, regional dynamics, domestic considerations, and external influences. Pakistan must make confident choices despite the challenges posed by its geography and world politics. Although its domestic economy is struggling and requires urgent attention, BRI and CPEC offer a promising opportunity for Pakistan to strengthen its economy. However, the impact of CPEC has been limited due to regional constraints and can only be realised once regional connectivity and trade and energy routes are completed and operationalised. The West has also launched its B3W initiative, recognising China's advantage in connectivity. They have warned against joining BRI, claiming it is a debt trap strategy. This paper argues that at this critical juncture of a geo-economic pivot, Pakistan must re-evaluate its choices and focus on developing its economy while prioritising economic development. It also examines the options available to Pakistan to facilitate this geoeconomic pivot effectively. The choices and their implications are likely to be persuaded by geopolitical constraints.

Bibliography Entry

Bhatti, Amjad Mahmood, and Nataliya Shahrukh. 2023. "Navigating the Path Towards Geoeconomics: An Analysis of Opportunities and Challenges for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 1-12.

EU FAST TRACK MEMBERSHIP: CAN IT HELP UKRAINE RESOLVE ITS REAL PROBLEMS?

2023-08-19T20:41:25+05:00

In 1991, during its inception process, Ukraine faced Russia's territorial claims and a cold reception from the Western world towards its leadership. After evaluating its internal and external interests, Ukraine chose to sign a friendship and cooperation agreement with Russia, compromising its rights as a sovereign state. This decision kept the complex issues of cross-border irredentism and multiple identities in check. However, during the democratic transition, external actors got involved in Ukraine's domestic politics, resulting in the removal of President Yanukovych's government. This critical juncture set the trajectory for unleashing Ukraine's state-ness issues. External involvement and political mismanagement aggravated Ukraine's problems and transformed its political issues into state-legitimacy issues, making its claim of a single entity void. Without state legitimacy, Ukraine cannot join the EU or consolidate as a democracy. Even if it enters the EU, it cannot safeguard its state sovereignty or achieve a profitable deal. This post-positivist research uses process tracing within a case study to highlight Ukraine's real problems and whether EU membership can help resolve them. The best solution for Ukraine is to focus on its domestic issues and negotiate with the other actor for a peaceful solution.

Bibliography Entry

Siddiqi, Houma. 2023. "EU Fast Track Membership: Can It Help Ukraine Resolve Its Real Problems?" Margalla Papers 27 (1): 13-27.

HYPERSONIC WEAPON SYSTEMS – A NEW WAVE OF ARMS RACE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION

2023-08-19T20:41:23+05:00

Technological advancements and tactical applications have always played a significant role in determining the outcomes of military conflicts. The emergence of Hypersonic Weapon Systems is considered a game-changer in contemporary and future warfare, as it can potentially dominate the early stages of conflict. Major powers like the US, China and Russia are pursuing technological superiority by developing hypersonic weapons, which could undermine conventional strategic capabilities and render even the most advanced air and missile defences obsolete. However, there has been limited discussion on the impact of deploying hypersonic weapons in the Indian Ocean region and its implications on strategic stability in the Pakistan-India military matrix. This paper examines the induction of hypersonic weapons by the Indian Navy, utilising insights from security dilemma and conventional deterrence theories to navigate the complex strategic landscape in the region. It contributes to the ongoing debate on the relationship between the arms race and conventional deterrence in Pakistan and India, highlighting the risks of an arms race in the Indian Ocean region. Without strategic dialogue on regulating hypersonic weapons systems, the chances of escalation and conflict could increase significantly.

Bibliography Entry

Raza, Imran and Nasir Mehmood. 2023. "Hypersonic Weapon Systems – A New Wave of Arms Race in the Indian Ocean Region." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 28-39.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS OVERRIDING THE NON-PROLIFERATION PRIORITIES: AN ANALYSIS OF INDO-US CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL

2023-08-19T20:41:19+05:00

The study has reviewed a critical question of how great powers override non-proliferation priorities at times of strategic considerations by creating ease out of their international obligations. In 2008, the Bush Administration entered a strategic understanding with India to enhance cooperation in the nuclear field that paved the way for civilian nuclear trade with New Delhi and carefully crafted the power dynamics favouring India. This study finds out that the so-called ‘Non-proliferation Enhancement Act’ provided an undue advantage to India over Pakistan, thus forcing Islamabad to improve the effectiveness and outreach of her strategic assets to mitigate the apprehensive threshold. Although the nuclearisation of South Asia was implicated in the non-proliferation regime, it ensured strategic balance in the region and shall continue to do so in the national security calculations. The Indo-US nuclear cooperation continues to haunt the dynamics of nuclear parity that concurrently possess serious security implications for Pakistan by allowing India to manipulate the threshold. Therefore, this paper investigates the genesis of the Indo-US deal, the geostrategic and commercial interests of major powers underpinning this deal, implications for Pakistan, steps taken by Pakistan so far and the way forward. The study is deductive and has contested the assumption of the nuclear non-proliferation regime as a theoretical framework.

Bibliography Entry

Sargana, Tauqeer Hussain. 2023. "Strategic Considerations Overriding the Non-Proliferation Priorities: An Analysis of Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 40-52.

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW AND AMERICAN NUCLEAR POLICY: A CRITICAL OVERVIEW

2023-08-19T20:41:17+05:00

The US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) has been an important document detailing the US administration's policy preferences since its first issuance in 1994. Biden administration released its NPR in October 2022, which identifies nuclear rivals and focus areas examining the role of nuclear weapons in overall US strategy. Using the historical research method and open-source information, the paper provides an overview of the US strategic calculus on nuclear weapons since 1945, focusing on post-Cold War developments and how its nuclear policy and strategy evolved. The paper argues that despite advocating for nuclear disarmament, US presidents stayed within lip service and kept enhancing the US nuclear stockpile. It also highlights that President Trump’s decisions adversely affected US nuclear weapons policy and global security and that President Biden’s NPR would follow the route rather than fulfil his campaign promises. The paper has three parts: the first deals with US nuclear policy during the Cold War; the second looks at the policy during the post-Cold War era from President Bush Senior to President Biden. The third and final part critically analyses the overall nuclear policy challenges faced by the Biden Administration and how it might address them.

Bibliography Entry

Zeb, Rizwan. 2023. "Biden Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review and American Nuclear Policy: A Critical Overview" Margalla Papers 27 (1): 53-66.

STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITY, SECURITY DILEMMA AND THE INTERPLAY OF INTERESTS: RUSSIA, CHINA AND THE US IN THE ARCTIC REGION SINCE 2014

2023-08-19T20:41:14+05:00

The Northern Pole's polar ice is melting at an alarming rate due to climate change, significantly impacting the region's strategic landscape. The potential for economic growth and increasing security competition has led Russia, China and the US to ramp up their politico-military activities in the region. This research paper uses a qualitative method that explores the changing geopolitics of the region through a structural realist approach to examine the strategic interests and opportunities of these three countries in the Arctic. The study sheds light on how climate change has affected the region's geopolitical and geostrategic effects and how these countries compete for influence in the area, leading to mounting concerns and policy shifts. The paper shows how Russia takes a realist approach; China enhances its influence through a developmental approach, while the US tries to increase its power to counter the influence of Russia and China in the region. Additionally, the paper explains how the interplay of interests in the region is associated with the offence-defence balance and security dilemmas resulting from the neorealist behaviour of these states.

Bibliography Entry

Mushtaq, Shireen, Uswa Sharif and Rida Fatima. 2023. "Strategic Opportunity, Security Dilemma and the Interplay of Interests: Russia, China and the US in the Arctic Region Since 2014." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 67-81.

SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION AND AFGHANISTAN: INTERESTS AND LIMITATIONS

2023-08-19T20:41:12+05:00

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has greater relevance in Afghanistan because of its strategic importance and geographic proximity. For years, the country has harboured numerous extremist groups and insurgents. It has remained a battleground for US-led coalition forces and the Taliban for about two decades. Despite efforts by the US and its allies, peace has yet to be restored in Afghanistan, and the responsibility now rests on regional countries. It is crucial for these states, especially Eurasian nations, to work together to stabilise the war-torn country and bring lasting peace to the region. Therefore, the study examines the push and pull factors of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s interests in Afghanistan and the challenges that come with implementing their peace plans. The data has been collected from various primary and secondary sources, including websites, newspapers and research articles. The paper also highlights two major concerns for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the economic crisis in Afghanistan and the international recognition of the Taliban government.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Hameed Ullah, Muhammad Farooq Shah and Muhammad Ilyas Khan. 2023. "Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Afghanistan: Interests and Limitations." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 82-95.

US’ TAIWAN STRATEGY: AN INSTRUMENT TO CONTAIN CHINA

2023-08-19T20:41:10+05:00

The issue of Taiwan has become a major point of contention between the US and China, with visits by US officials resulting in strong criticism from China and military escalation in the region. Experts are concerned that a conflict between these two powers in the Asia-Pacific region could endanger global peace and stability, especially given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. China maintains its claim over Taiwan under the 'One China Policy,’ considering it a lost province and advocating for its unification with the mainland. While recognising Taiwan as part of China under this policy, the US engages in diplomatic and military activities with Taiwan, which China considers interference in its internal affairs. In the post-Cold War era, the US adopted an ambiguous policy towards Taiwan as part of its containment strategy against China. Therefore, the US seeks to slow China's perpetual growth by promising enhanced defence for Taiwan. Recent US official visits to Taiwan reflect provocative measures in line with this strategy. This paper analyses the US' Taiwan policy as a containment instrument against China, recent measures adopted by the US administration to provoke China, Taiwan's strategic significance, and the US' long-standing commitment to Taiwan's security as essential for maintaining its leadership role in international affairs.

Bibliography Entry

Farooq, Muhammad. 2023. "US’ Taiwan Strategy: An Instrument to Contain China." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 96-108.

THE CHARM OFFENSIVE OF CHINA: ASSESSING THE ROLE OF DIGITAL SILK ROAD IN FOSTERING SINO-EU ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

2023-08-19T20:41:07+05:00

Digital Silk Road, like Belt and Road Initiative, is an ambitious and all-encompassing inventiveness of the Chinese government, aiming to develop China as a global telecommunications network and infrastructure leader. The Global Digital order, since its inception, has been dominated by Western powers; however, with the initiation of the Digital Silk Road and China becoming a digital backbone globally, many Western powers have shown disregard for how this digital hegemony of China can be a threat to their national security. Nonetheless, besides the security implications, the Digital Silk Road brings many strategic opportunities. This paper, thus, looks into how China is advocating a softer image of itself through its Charm Offensive diplomacy and influencing actors involved in Digital Silk Road – specifically the EU – to cooperate with China vis-à-vis Digital Silk Road. This study uses qualitative and thematic analysis to determine how China and the EU can ward off the strategic implications and collaborate to build a more inclusive digital economy.

Bibliography Entry

Farhat, Laraib. 2023. "The Charm Offensive of China: Assessing the Role of Digital Silk Road in Fostering Sino-EU Economic Integration." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 109-122.

PAKISTAN'S SECURITY RELATIONS WITH KENYA, SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

2023-08-19T20:41:05+05:00

This study examines Pakistan's security relations with Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria, specifically focusing on the influence of geopolitical, economic and cultural factors. Three main research questions guide the research: a) what are the similarities and differences in Pakistan's security relations with these three countries? b) How do geopolitical factors shape Pakistan's security relations with each country? c) What roles do cultural and economic ties play in shaping these security relationships? The study identifies and compares similarities and differences in security relations among these countries, highlighting the unique historical, geopolitical, and cultural factors through a multidimensional approach, drawing insights from Realism, Constructivism and Neoliberal Institutionalism. The findings underscore the significance of considering power dynamics and cultural influences in understanding security relations. Furthermore, the study sheds light on the potential of international institutions in promoting cooperation and building trust between Pakistan and its African counterparts.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Tariq. 2023. "Pakistan's Security Relations with Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 123-137.

REVISITING THAILAND'S PARANOIA: SEATO AS A SAFEGUARD AGAINST VIETNAM SYNDROME

2023-08-19T20:41:02+05:00

During the Cold War, the opposing stances of the US and USSR caused a bipolar global system that lacked a unipolar centre of power, leading to a stronger centrifugal pull. The Vietnam War made Southeast Asia a hotbed for these tensions. Following the fall of French troops in Dien Bien Phu in 1954, the US aimed to solidify its position and successfully created the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) through the efforts of Secretary of State Dulles and like-minded nations. To explain the political implications, the Michael Brecher geographical framework has been chosen. This framework highlights the dominant and subordinate systems of international relations during the Cold War period and describes the operation and evolution of SEATO. By incorporating guidelines into the charter, the treaty zone became a space where signatories could resolve their issues. This reference framework helps to identify the causal determinant in the stimuli of an individual signatory. Despite being a group of countries with varied interests, the interaction between the US and Thailand during the Vietnam War showed that Thailand's skilful aggregation of marginal gains resulted from its inherent paranoia against the Vietnam syndrome. Furthermore, the study reveals that Thailand had a significant influence in shaping Washington's policy for Southeast Asia and used its gains as a launching pad to control the spread of Communism.

Bibliography Entry

Javed, Tauseef, Sun Jiandang and Ayisha Khurshid. 2023. "Revisiting Thailand's Paranoia: SEATO As a Safeguard Against Vietnam Syndrome." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 138-154.

PAKISTAN-INDIA BILATERAL RELATIONS AND APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PEACEBUILDING

2023-08-19T20:40:59+05:00

The recent Pulwama incident has further strained the already tense relationship between India and Pakistan. India's violation of the UN resolution on Kashmir has exacerbated the situation, leaving both countries with seemingly no common ground or shared challenges to bring them to the dialogue table and build confidence and trust for a sustainable relationship. This paper proposes a peace-initiating process prioritising cooperation on common environmental challenges to improve bilateral relations between Pakistan and India. Environmental peacebuilding, which focuses on shared ecological challenges and provides a platform for dialogue and cooperation between rival states, has been explored for a couple of years. However, the cooperative dimensions of environmental peacebuilding have yet to be studied in bilateral relations between Pakistan and India. This paper provides a brief qualitative analysis of relations between two countries, highlights the potential for environmental peacebuilding to improve their relationship, and addresses challenges to successfully implementing this approach.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Omair Farooq. 2023. "Pakistan-India Bilateral Relations and Application of Environmental Peacebuilding." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 155-165.

CONCEPTUALISING THE ROLE OF INDIA IN NORTH KOREA`S DENUCLEARISATION

2023-08-19T20:40:55+05:00

The US and its allies perceive North Korea's acquisition of nuclear weapons as a significant strategic challenge in the region. Diplomatic efforts have been made to persuade the Kim regime to abandon its nuclear programme, but they have failed. The DPRK considers nuclear weapons capability vital for deterrence against external threats and strategically crucial for national defence. India, a key US ally in containing China, has taken a stiffer stance towards Pyongyang's nuclear programme while enhancing its role in contributing to North Korea's denuclearisation. It represents itself as a staunch opponent of nuclear proliferation and the development of sophisticated weapons. This paper explores India's role in North Korea's perceived denuclearisation. It highlights that India has adopted a dual-standard approach to nuclear proliferation and sophisticated weapons and is also trying to create a technological nexus between Pakistan and North Korea, allegedly to achieve strategic ambitions in South Asia and assert pressure on Pakistan with the help of the US and its Western allies.

Bibliography Entry

Kakar, Sher Ali and Muhammad Adil Khan. 2023. "Conceptualising the Role of India in North Korea’s Denuclearisation." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 166-175.

RELIGIOUSLY MOTIVATED POLITICS IN DEMOCRATIC INDIA UNDER THE BJP GOVERNMENT

2023-08-19T20:40:51+05:00

The prevalence of democracy is contingent upon sustainable peace and good governance, wherein individuals are granted freedom to practice their cultural and religious beliefs. In South Asia, the politicisation of religion has been a vexing issue, with dominant religious groups, both protected and non-protected, threatening democratic ideals. This paper argues that India, which is among the world's largest secular democratic states, has witnessed the emergence of fascist and authoritarian policies and manifestations under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, allowing extremist Hindutva groups and BJP to promote Hindu nationalism at the expense of other marginalised groups. The paper also highlights that the BJP government has employed religion to manipulate and mobilise individuals against minorities, jeopardising democratic values and undermining state institutions. It concludes that if the Indian government persists in practising fascistic tenets, it will have grave repercussions for regional stability and the democratic rights of minorities at home.

Bibliography Entry

Qurban, Zara. 2023. "Religiously Motivated Politics in Democratic India Under the BJP Government." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 176-185.

ROLE OF PAKISTANI FEMALE PEACEKEEPERS IN ENHANCING INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

2023-08-19T20:40:48+05:00

In recent years, there has been growing recognition of the effectiveness of an all-gender-inclusive approach to peacekeeping missions in conflict zones, as highlighted in the UNSCR 1325 on Women, Peace and Security. UN has acknowledged the importance of female peacekeepers as potential role models for girls in male-dominated societies and has taken steps to increase their numbers. Pakistan has been a significant contributor to UN Peacekeeping missions over the past six decades and has also achieved the target of deploying female soldiers in its contingent forces. This study uses qualitative methods, primarily focus group discussions, to evaluate the constructive impact of UN female peacekeepers and their potential to enhance passive compliance towards International Humanitarian Law in conflict zones. It also explores whether female peacekeepers make a unique contribution and investigates the existing gap in research on their performance and the challenges they face in the field. The study highlights the need for further research and support to address the social and cultural factors that continue to restrict the contribution of female peacekeepers, particularly from countries like Pakistan, where women face significant challenges in the security sector.

Bibliography Entry

Malik, Salma, Ahmed Hasan Awan and Talha Ibrahim. 2023. "Role of Pakistani Female Peacekeepers in Enhancing International Humanitarian Law: Opportunities and Challenges." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 186-198.

BOOK REVIEW: UNDERSTANDING LAND WARFARE

2023-08-10T09:43:57+05:00

Land warfare has remained a prominent factor in international politics. States have been developing strategies on operational and tactical levels to strengthen their land defence forces. Christopher Tuck's book, Understanding Land Warfare, is a comprehensive addition to the existing academic literature focusing on historical and changing contemporary land warfare concepts. The book is divided into three parts that contain eleven chapters. Part I, The Development of Land Warfare, underlines modern land warfare's fundamental concepts and historical development since 1900. Part II, What is Victory? highlights political and military gains in unconventional, low-intensity asymmetric warfare, including counterinsurgency operations, peace operations and hybrid warfare. Part III, The Future, explores possible developments in land warfare techniques while using Russia and China as case studies.

BOOK REVIEW: DIVIDED: WHY WE'RE LIVING IN AN AGE OF WALLS

2023-08-10T09:47:10+05:00

Divided is all about creating walls, their perceived necessity and their impact. Deep divisions based on wealth, race, religion and politics are the reasons behind barriers preventing violence and maintaining defence. Tim Marshall stated that in this world, there have always been boundaries, ranging from small scale to larger ones. Physical boundaries are mostly demarcated on maps and the ground, and movement through them is restricted. Barriers at every level create a 'US' vs 'THEM' mentality and are somehow crucial for the promotion of national identity. Thousands of miles of walls and fences have been built worldwide in the twenty-first century. The growing higher walls and barriers are reshaping the world. The author has discussed barriers in China, the US, Israel-Palestine, the Middle East, the Subcontinent, Africa, Europe and the UK.

BOOK REVIEW: I, WARBOT: THE DAWN OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENT CONFLICT

2023-08-10T09:50:23+05:00

Payne's work is impressively precise and insightful, leading readers through the hype surrounding technology and the talk of a robotic revolution, particularly in the military realm. The book delves into the intersection of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems and warfare. With the current use of autonomous drones and robotic tanks on the battlefield, AI is reshaping armed conflicts, and military leaders and policymakers are relying on data analysis to make decisions. These AI-based machines are changing the way humans approach warfare, resulting in an increased likelihood of conflicts.