Margalla Papers

A NEW FACET TO US-CHINA RIVALRY: BUILD BACK BETTER WORLD VERSUS BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

2023-02-07T13:35:12+05:00

The new world order has been instrumental in determining and promoting multilateralism, and as a result, the world has undergone several transformations in the past few decades. Amidst heightened US-China tension, President Biden unveiled the Build Back Better World (B3W) project during the 2021-G7 meeting. The following year it was re-branded as the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. While it has not been explicitly stated, B3W aims to counter China's multi-billion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Understanding B3W vs. BRI debate is important for countries, especially those in the Middle East who already perform a balancing act between the US and China. This paper assesses B3W vs. BRI debate with particular reference to the Middle East. After evaluating the contradictions and complementarities between the two projects, this paper concludes that B3W will only benefit Middle Eastern countries if it aligns with BRI, where strategic objectives and interests make parallel, such as in the avenues of cyber innovation and economic development.

Bibliography Entry

Siddiqa, Arhama, and Syed Qandil Abbas. 2022. "A New Facet to US-China Rivalry: Build Back Better World versus Belt and Road Initiative." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 1-13.

CHINA'S FOREIGN POLICY SHIFT FROM BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TO GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVE: IMPACTS ON MARITIME GEOPOLITICS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION

2023-02-08T09:54:21+05:00

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the foreign policy strategy that has changed world politics. It has compelled states to revisit their foreign policies either in favour of BRI or countering it. BRI has created a difficult situation for international power structure and status quo states due to transitioning power from west to east and emerging geopolitical reconfiguration. However, in September 2021, President Xi Jinping announced China's Global Development Initiative (GDI) at the opening session of the UN General Assembly, which renewed debate about the impacts of China's strategy. As China has a strong foothold in the Indian Ocean region through BRI, the undertaken research is an endeavour to study the effect of shifting China's foreign policy from BRI to GDI over the maritime geopolitics of the region. This research aims at determining GDI's role in supporting UN Agenda 2030 through focused efforts on sustainable development goals in the maritime domain. It is an exploratory and qualitative research conducted through deductive reasoning to seek an explanation of the core proposition. This research has used secondary sources for determining these upshots with potential changes in the maritime geopolitics of the Indian Ocean region.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Maliha Zeba, and Zohaib Altaf. 2022. "China's Foreign Policy Shift from Belt and Road Initiative to Global Development Initiative: Impacts on Maritime Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean Region." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 14-27.

SYRIA AS A SHATTER BELT AND THE GREAT POWER COMPETITION

2023-02-07T13:55:02+05:00

In geopolitics, the term ‘shatter belt’ refers to a region that is highly vulnerable to conflicts and is often an arena for great power competition through proxy wars. For more than a decade, Syria has been engaged in a similar unprecedented state of conflict involving domestic and foreign actors – a conflict that has exacerbated the dilapidated political, economic, and social security. As per the Fragile States Index 2021, Syria is one of the world's top three most fragile states, indicating its vulnerability and unsustainability. Using qualitative data through secondary sources, this paper highlights how Syria serves as a shatter belt for major powers, explicating interests of the US, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. In order to understand the dynamics of conflict, the paper applies Amos Tversky’s Prospect theory which highlights stakeholders' loss aversion and risk-acceptant behaviour. In addition, the paper highlights that conflict resolution strategies applied to resolve the conflict have failed so far. In this regard, John Burton’s Human Needs theory is applied to the case study to emphasize what can be done to resolve this protracted conflict.

Bibliography Entry

Ashraf, Nageen. 2022. "Syria as a Shatter Belt and the Great Power Competition." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 28-38.

REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX THEORY AND SOFT POWER: MAPPING CHINA’S ENGAGEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN

2023-02-08T10:02:55+05:00

The paramount interest of China in Afghanistan seems to ensure peace and stability in the region. Beijing’s soft power approach towards Afghanistan through its neutral stance and minimum involvement in domestic politics within Afghanistan proved to be an advantage in cementing China’s role in Afghanistan as a credible mediator. China extends its influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative, where the importance of CPEC is interlinked with the development of China’s western sector. China aims to harness the Afghan territory for its transit routes because Afghanistan bridges the connectivity gap between Central Asia and West Asia. This paper highlights that the current interests of China in Afghanistan are multiple. China is utilizing all the soft power elements to promote and expand the areas of activities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to South Asia because stability in Afghanistan cannot be achieved solely. Understanding Regional Security Complex Theory and Soft Power can encapsulate China’s engagement in Afghanistan. It has made a considerable effort by highlighting regional complexities on various multilateral fronts like China-Pakistan-Afghanistan, China-Russia-Afghanistan, and China-Russia-Pakistan-Iran. This study develops an analytical framework of South Asian security from the regional point of view and analyses external powers' role in the transition of regional security complexes.

Bibliography Entry

Tahir, Mariam. 2022. "Regional Security Complex Theory and Soft Power: Mapping China’s Engagement in Afghanistan." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 39-48.

INDIA’S GROWING CYBER PARTNERSHIPS AND CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN

2023-02-08T10:06:11+05:00

With the emergence of new technologies, the potential of cyberspace is immense; however, the growing number of cyber-attacks on states’ critical infrastructure has highlighted the need for cyber security. Although it is challenging to achieve foolproof security, states can maximise safety in the cyber domain through cyber partnerships with technologically advanced countries. This study finds that India is maximising its cyber security while enhancing its offensive cyber capabilities by concluding agreements with most cyber-secure states. Furthermore, India’s cyber capabilities are more focused on Pakistan due to longstanding tensions between the two countries. On the other hand, Pakistan lacks focus on cyber security and has yet to take sufficient measures. Pakistan can maximise its cyber security through technological advancements and taking advantage of friendly countries' expertise in the cyber security domain. Cyber security partnerships will strengthen Pakistan against threats emerging from state and non-state actors. Following a qualitative exploratory research design, this study provides a detailed understanding of India’s growing cyber security partnership and cyber posture, besides highlighting Pakistan’s approach towards cyber security.

Bibliography Entry

Farooq, Ammad and Ahmad Ali. 2022. "India’s Growing Cyber Partnerships and Challenges for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 49-61.

MEDIA REPORTING OF TERRORISM: A CASE STUDY OF ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND SYRIA (ISIS)

2023-02-07T14:15:45+05:00

Terrorist organizations have long realized the invaluable benefits of various media platforms, particularly social media, in achieving their tactical, operational and strategic goals. They have figured out how to make an impact through social media. Researchers have found that media plays a significant role in disseminating messages supporting terrorism. Since the September 11, 2001 attacks, terrorism has attracted much media attention. ISIS, in particular, has produced the most technologically sophisticated propaganda compared to other terrorist groups. Since terrorism has received so much media attention, it is vital to understand how it is presented in international news. This study, therefore, examines terrorists' use of media while focusing on ISIS as a case study. Research findings suggest that employing media as a weapon in combat is vital to ISIS's strategy to establish a hypothetical Islamic caliphate. ISIS uses media for three central goals: promoting its propaganda, recruiting new fighters, and inciting violence. The article employs framing theory, a study of comparative journalism and global media coverage of terrorism. This paper also explores the idea that media coverage may very well encourage acts of terrorism.

Bibliography Entry

Sunawar, Lubna. 2022. "Media Reporting of Terrorism: A Case Study of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 62-71.

ANALYSING THE CREDIBILITY OF META-GEOPOLITICAL FRAMEWORK: IMPLICATIONS OF KINDLEBERGER TRAP ON CHINA (POST-BRI)

2023-02-07T14:19:39+05:00

The world had to suffer the implications of Kindleberger Trap in post-World War I due to the vacuum created at the international level to provide global public goods by the then superpowers – Great Britain and the US. The exact implications could be faced by the rest of the world in the 21^st century. Today, China aspires to become a global leader; thus, it must avoid the Kindleberger Trap, which can cause inferences for its stability. For this purpose, the state must provide the world with global public goods as a responsibility. The US had this responsibility until the Trump administration enacted the policy of isolation, just like the post-World War I era. This policy of the US administration created a gap at the international level that China wants to fill as a global power. This paper, therefore, examines the implications of the Kindleberger Trap on China, particularly after the initiation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Meta-geopolitics is used as a framework to highlight areas of China’s strength along with rooms that can cause a setback for China’s stability at the national and international levels. This paper also analyses the domestic policies of China and how to avoid the Kindleberger Trap.

Bibliography Entry

Tariq, Ramsha, and Aiysha Safdar Ali. 2022. "Analysing the Credibility of Meta-Geopolitical Framework: Implications of Kindleberger Trap on China (Post-BRI)." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 72-86.

INDIAN ENGAGEMENT WITH TALIBAN-LED AFGHANISTAN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

2023-02-07T14:24:03+05:00

Establishing a liberal government in post-Taliban Afghanistan allowed India to fulfil its foreign policy goal, i.e., investment in Afghanistan to acquire leverage for its anti-Pakistan agenda. However, the twenty-year war ended with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, resulting in the Taliban’s rise to power, diminishing Indian influence and reversion of its interests. India halted its investment and diplomatic engagement with the Taliban government due to its previous position, which led India to compromise on its strategic interests outlined in the presence of US forces. To safeguard its strategic interests, India has resumed its diplomatic and economic engagement with the Taliban government at a critical time when other regional states are analysing the US’ future course of action towards the war-torn country. Therefore, this paper examines how India evaluates the newly structured regional environment while finding a new role in Afghanistan. It also analyses the implications of India-Afghanistan re-engagement for Pakistan.

Bibliography Entry

Farooq, Muhammad. 2022. "Indian Engagement with Taliban-Led Afghanistan and Implications for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 87-95.

SOCIAL MEDIA AS A THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY: A CASE STUDY OF TWITTER IN PAKISTAN

2023-02-07T14:27:35+05:00

Social media has evolved significantly over the years while providing strategic platforms for voices to reach billions of people within no time. Accordingly, it has advantages and disadvantages (threats). The nature of threats emanating from social media, especially Twitter, in the context of Pakistan, are mainly in the form of radicalization, glorification of terrorist groups, propagation of violent sub-nationalism and hybrid warfare. Though Pakistan has been relatively active after 2020 in responding to social media challenges, implementing social media regulations remains an issue, especially when most social media platforms are foreign in origin. This paper evaluates the interlinkage of social media and national security in the context of Pakistan while exploring how agents of insecurity and instability exploit social media and what response mechanism the state has placed to mitigate these threats. The paper is a qualitative inquiry using primary and secondary sources to answer these questions. The research findings suggest marginal securitization of social media, albeit without significant implementation.

Bibliography Entry

Al Abd, Saad. 2022. "Social Media as a Threat to National Security: A Case Study of Twitter in Pakistan." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 96-107.